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| BSP chief Mayawati. Photo: x/@Mayawati |
New Delhi, India — Mayawati, the leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), finds herself at the center of political scrutiny once again. After a resounding defeat in the recent elections, she has pointed fingers at Muslims, blaming them for her party's lackluster performance. But what lies beneath this blame game, and how did it impact the electoral landscape in Uttar Pradesh?
Going Solo: A Disastrous Move
Mayawati's decision to go solo in the elections proved disastrous for the BSP. Despite fielding a significant number of candidates from the minority community, the party failed to secure any seats and managed only around 9.4% of the votes. This performance was even worse than in 2014 when the BSP secured a decent vote share of 19.77% and was the runner-up on 34 seats out of 80.
Muslim Voters and the INDIA Bloc
Mayawati's recent statement warning Muslims about future candidacies reflects her frustration. She claimed that most voters from her Jatav community (UP's largest Dalit caste) still backed the BSP. However, her disingenuous call to fault Muslims for their political adeptness suggests a leader who failed to make an impact on the election.
An analysis by The Wire reveals that in 47 Lok Sabha seats in UP, the BSP's vote share exceeded the victory margin of either the Samajwadi Party (SP) or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Of these, 31 seats were won by the INDIA alliance. This indicates that the Opposition benefited more from the BSP contesting alone. Additionally, there were 16 seats won by the BJP where its victory margin was less than the BSP's votes.
The Dalit Vote and Mayawati's Resentment
The absence of a grand alliance between the SP and BSP raised questions about the Dalit vote, particularly among Jatavs. In previous elections, Dalit voters strategically shifted to the BJP to prevent SP's advantage. This time, with Akhilesh Yadav emphasizing the constitutional rights of marginalized Hindu castes and Mayawati staying out, many Dalits likely leaned toward the INDIA bloc. The BSP's vote share decreased from 13% in 2022 to 9.4% in 2024.
A closer look at the results reveals why Mayawati is resentful toward Muslims. None of the 20 Muslim candidates she fielded came close to being the runner-up on any seat. Except for Amroha, where the BJP defeated the sitting Muslim MP of the Congress, the BSP's Muslim candidates did not impact the INDIA bloc's performance.
In summary, Mayawati's blame game may reflect her disappointment, but the numbers tell a different story. The BSP's Muslim candidates failed to spoil the game for the Opposition, leaving Mayawati with fewer bargaining chips.
